Put in action, here are a few examples for the most common types of long-haul flights and how I would approach them.

Westbound (3-9 hour time change)

Example Flights:

Europe —> North America (usually late morning departures)

North America —> Asia / Australia (usually late morning / early afternoon departures – sleep in if you can before going to the airport)

These are the easiest, and the most bearable in coach. Typically going westbound over many timezones means staying up so that you’re dead tired when you get in (usually the late afternoon) – have a light dinner after landing and/or go straight to sleep. This is fairly easy on Europe morning departures, a bit more difficult on departures westbound from North America to Asia or Australia. Have coffee onboard, maybe with a 1-2 hour nap halfway through.

Eastbound (3-6 hour time change, usually overnight)

Example Flights:

North America West Coast —> East Coast redeyes (these are terrible, but there’s no meal service, so try to sleep right away)

North America East Coast —> Europe (typically afternoon or evening departures)

South America and Australia eastbound transcons (ugh – fly during the day)

These are the hardest because the flights are generally too short to get a full night’s sleep, yet you’ll typically arrive in the morning (unless it’s a US transcon or the rare morning departure to Europe). I really try to avoid shorter redeyes like these because there really isn’t an optimal strategy that will leave you feeling even close to 100%. Try to fly morning departures for these and take a sleeping pill at your destination or choose the latest departures you can so you’re tired onboard and land as late in the morning as possible.

Eastbound (6-9 hour time change, usually overnight)

Example Flights:

North America West Coast —> Europe

Asia —> North America

Australia —> North America

This is the sweet spot – go to sleep right after the meal and aim to wake up just before landing. Ideally, you’ll be landing in the early afternoon, so it’s a matter of powering through 6 hours to get to evening in your destination

Polar Routes (9-12 hour time change)

Example Flights:

North America —> Middle East / India and vice versa

Southeast Asia to North America East Coast (rare)

Strangely enough, these aren’t actually as bad as they sound because at some point you’ll naturally be tired and want to sleep onboard. Plus, the flights are so long that you can get a full 6-8 hours of shuteye. Just don’t drink too much or get too chatty or engrossed in the IFE. Remember it’s not the actual timezones, it’s the chair, alcohol and dehydration. Bring a pillow and comfy pants.

North-South Routes (0-3 hour time change)

Example Flights:

North America —> South America and vice versa

Europe —> Southern Africa and vice versa

East Asia —> Australia/New Zealand and vice versa

These are great because theoretically there shouldn’t be any jetlag! Sleep if it’s night time outside (usually is) or stay up if it isn’t (rare).

Ultimately, you have remember that your goal is to get on your destination’s timezone as fast as possible. It can also be important to keep arrival times in mind when you book – there’s a reason why those redeye flights are cheaper (or tend to have award space).

Hope this post provides some quick guidance on when to sleep for your upcoming flight!

Read the rest of this article at Should I Sleep or Stay Awake on My Next Flight?.

So, I’m going to make a fanciful claim and give some rationale behind it. Food for thought.

Here it is:

“The physiological effects of jet lag are more a result of the environmental factors onboard an aircraft and in airports, and not so much a matter of crossing timezones.”

What! That’s crazy, Eric. Everyone knows jet lag is a thing caused by plotting a line across various boundaries on a map!

Well hang on, sometimes I get jet lag and sometimes I don’t. Sometimes even on the same routes! People often experience sleep issues and insomnia even on long flights that cross few timezones. Or at home.

What’s going on?

Jet lag seems to be less caused by actually traversing timezones and more due to four awful facts of air travel:

• You likely slept in a chair
• You’re likely to be dehydrated
• Excess alcohol can really disrupt sleep patterns
• Travel is stressful

1. You slept in a chair for MAYBE 4-6 hours (on a good flight)

Nobody likes to sleep in a bolt upright chair – try doing it at home and you’ll be cranky too.

Many of the aches, pains and insomnia come from the fact that you didn’t get a typical amount of sleep within a 24 hour period – not to mention the 300 or so other people that could potentially wake you up mid-REM cycle.

Add to that a cramped, steel chair and it’s a pretty obvious recipe for a bad time – no different than an overnight bus or train ride. Oh yeah, and crying babies like this one.

2. Everything on an aircraft is conspiring to make you dehydrated, mess with your stomach and physiologically uncomfortable.

Cabin humidity is a fraction of what it is on the ground.

Recycled air – bleh. You know how you get sleepy in a stuffy room? Ditto here.

Airline food has much more salt that food at home, likely on par with a fast food restaurant. How well do you feel after a double bacon gut bomb?

And most people don’t have unfettered access to water in coach (at least some of the better carriers do hand out bottles of water).

Hitting the coffee to stay up? BAM! Another dehydration whammy.

Plenty of studies have shown that dehydration drastically contributes to physiological imbalances (think about the last time you had too many cups of coffee) and, you guessed it, sleep issues.

This is why it’s doubly, if not triply important to stay hydrated while in the air. Bring a big empty bottle and have the flight attendants fill in in the galley – more than once.

3. Free Booze is Great – Hangovers, Not So Much

Free alcohol sounds like a great perk! How often do you have an open bar on the ground!?

Well, not often. Y’know why? Because open bars make people drunk and hungover.

Alcohol affects you more while in the air, so that drink or two is amplified, so not only do you feel more intoxicated, but the swelling in your brain caused by drinking and (you guessed it) dyhydration

Too much alcohol can dramatically affect a person’s sleep cycle on the ground. Think about the last time you perhaps partook too much, did you end up waking up in the middle of the night? Doesn’t that sound a lot like jet lag?

4. Travel is stressful

“You know what my idea of fun is? Waiting in line under bright lights at two in the morning!” – said no one ever.

Turns out the physiological stress of lugging heavy objects long distances over several hours or days, being corralled and crammed into pens and confining spaces also takes a toll on us. That’s where stress-relieving products like CBD Oil UK come in.

Really – how often do you drag luggage down the length of your street?

Remember the last time you spent all day at Disneyland or an amusement park? Not exactly a trip to the spa right? The physical stress you endure while traveling also contributes to fatigue, heaping on more reasons why your body hates you after a long journey. This is why many experts recommend the us of products available online just like this full-spectrum cbd. If you have more questions about CBD, then you may consult this Canna Doctors of America medical marijuana doctor.

Conclusion

Feel free to assassinate me in the comments, but this article is designed to get you to think about how you can minimize all the stressors on a journey that contribute to jet lag. If you think about your normal sleep patterns at home, we routinely go to bed maybe 5 or 6 hours off from any standard “bedtime” over several days in a week

(Early meeting at Work = In bed at 9pm | Getting back from Best Friend’s Wedding = Tucking in at 3am or later)

It’s less about the physical traversal of arbitrary geographic boundaries and more about treating yourself gently when you pick up and experience a lot of non-typical environmental factors at the same time.

Hope you packed your water bottle

Read the rest of this article at What Causes Jet Lag? It’s Not What You Think!.

Typically, this is totally fine and stopping in Amsterdam for ::ahem:: poffertjes and ducking into Hong Kong for dim sum (on the same trip no less) is fairly normal experience, particularly if you hold an American, Canadian or EU passport. We’re generally welcome unannounced in a LOT of countries.

But, there are a few that may trip you up — you globetrotter! So I compiled a list of countries that may be on your radar, but require somewhere between a little (visit a website, enter credit card details while standing at the check in desk) to a ton of preparation and immigration formalities before you go. Some even require you to part with your passport for a few days, if that concept is even conceivable to you.

<<Apologies for being dormant for the last few weeks, it took a while to research all this. — But you know me Researchy is how I roll>>

First, here’s a quick access table (not comprehensive, but countries more likely to be visited) For US Passport Holders – bookmark for future reference

Country	Level of Difficulty	Fees	Waiting/Approval Period	Validity	Notes / Links
Saudi Arabia (No Tourist Visas)*	5) Good Luck	2000 Saudi Riyal (~$533)	Likely a while	Single Entry - 6 month	New Visa Rules
Bolivia (Tourist Visa)	4) Hard	$160 payable by CC before you go	5 business days (in person at the LA consulate)	10 years (90 days per year)	Visa requirements How To Guide
Brazil (Tourist Visa)	4) Hard	$160-180	Several days to process (4-6 typically)	10 years	Generally pretty straightforward - Flyertalk Thread State Dept
China (Tourist Visa - greater than 72 hours)**	4) Hard	$140	2-4 business days	10 years	Chinese Embassy
Pakistan (Tourist Visa)	4) Hard	$199 w/ Credit Card	4-6 weeks	6 months	Pakistan Embassy
Russia (Tourist Visa)	4) Hard	Fees Single entry - $90, Double entry - $144 and Multiple entry $270	4-20 days (expediting <3 days possible but expensive - 2x fees)	3 years	Need a letter of invitation from host or tourist agency Russian Embassy State Dept
Cuba (US DoT license / Visa on Arrival)	3) Medium	$50 + health insurance (at airport)	Visa On arrival		State Dept Treasury Dept
Bhutan (Tourist Daily Fee + Visa On Arrival)	3) Medium	$40	On arrival		Generally has to be arranged through a tour operator - $200-250 per day (includes food and lodging) +$30-40/day for duo and solo travelers State Dept
Paraguay (Visa on Arrival)	2) Easy (Expensive)	$160 USD (due to reciprocity) payable cash only		90 days	Paraguay VOA
Bangladesh (Visa on Arrival)	2) Easy (Expensive)	$160		30 days	Bangladesh eVisa
Fiji (No Visa)	1) Easy	$20 USD
Mexico (No Visa)	1) Easy	~$25
Vietnam (eVisa - Online)	1) Easy	$25 (single entry) $50 (double entry) + VoA agency fees	Typically 2-3 days	1 or 3 months (same price)	Generally have to go through a tour agency to get a letter of invitation - so expect a service fee (~$20) and a few days to secure the pdf
Australia (eVisa - Online)	1) Easy	$20	<1 day		Must be physically outside Australia Australian eVisa
Egypt (No Visa)	1) Easy	$25 USD
Philippines (No Visa)	1) Easy	PHP 750 (~$17)
Costa Rica (No Visa)	1) Easy	$29 payable by CC
South Africa (No Visa)	1) Easy	Must have 6 months validity and two passport pages empty
Cambodia (Visa on Arrival)	1) Easy	$35		1 month	Cambodia Visa FAQ
Sri Lanka (eVisa - Online)	1) Easy	$20	~10 minutes	30 days	Sri Lanka eVisa
Turkey (eVisa - Online)	1) Easy	$20	eVisa granted in a few minutes	Typically 90 days	Turkish eVisa
United Kingdom (No Visa)	1) Easy	Originating from a UK airport, especially in a premium cabin is expensive
India (eVisa - Online)	1) Easy	$60	Have to register a few days in advance (roughly 24 hours to approve)	30 days	Indian eVisa

*An invitation from business, religious or government entity is required.

** You can visit China for less than 72 hrs, but you must be in transit to 3rd region/country (HK/Taiwan/Macau count) and transit through a specific set of airports – no land border crossings

Ok, a few notes:

1. I tried to assess a subjective Easy (just show up, pay a fee) to Hard (go to an embassy or consulate, hand over passport, and wait several days) so you can quickly see if you can just show up.
2. The fees and policies fluctuate frequently based on changing political whims, so I included embassy and application URLs when possible. Don’t treat these as gospel. Always check with the US Department of State and that countries Embassy/Consulate pages for the most accurate information.
3. Most countries also have a dizzying array of visa options. I tried to pick the most logical visa (in most cases “tourist”) that you’d likely be applying for.
4. The fees do not include using a visa service. (Because you’re a big kid, right?) These services, plus expediting fees will cost extra.
5. This is mostly designed as a handy guide so you’re not denied boarding at check-in because of visa issues. (Airlines DO check rigorously. Don’t be caught unawares.)

General Advice

Beyond the table above, here are a few general notes for your garden variety globetrotter:

Proof of Onward Travel

Passport Validity

Generally print any eVisas/Letters of Approval

Sufficient funds to support yourself during stay / ability buy a ticket outward

Vaccination Card

Passport Photos

Conclusion

Hope this is a useful resource — if you have other countries you’d like us to add (with the idea that these countries might be high priorities for a decent number of people) — comment below with the type of Visa, fees (if any), whether you have to apply in advance, time to process, typical validity or validity options and links to the appropriate websites. This took a while to pull together, so please help share the research burden

Read the rest of this article at Can’t I Just Show Up? Visa Considerations for Travel Hackers.

3) Stop shopping only on price. Find the right value for you

Generally with travel, like many industries, you get what you pay for.

Pro Tip: Sometimes the cheapest option isn’t the best idea.

Expect ridiculously early or late departures, long layovers and hidden fees on the cheapest tickets on the lowest cost carriers.

You don’t eat at McDonalds every time you go out, and that underwear at the dollar store might not be a good idea, so why are you shopping solely on price?

Also, with unbundling, yes the ticket price is often lower, but consider buying a la carte services that will make your trip go more smoothly.

Tall? Buy extra legroom.

Have an 8 hour layover? Consider buying a lounge pass.

Dreading that 14 hour flight? Spring for Wi-Fi early in the flight (though only if it’s unlimited, not one of the horrible 20mb for $20 plans)

Similarly with lodging, think about the added costs of getting around. $40 less per night at a hotel is negated if you have to take two $20 cab rides just to get wherever you’re going each day.

I don’t quite understand why people become overly focused on price while traveling, when I see these same people splurge at home. But the complaints I get from people who fly Ryanair or Spirit never seen to stop.

4) Have access to the internet while traveling

Pro Tip: I don’t care how you do it, but connect your god***n phone!

The number of complaints about tourist traps or getting lost is astounding. Check out this Tripadvisor thread of Rue De Bouchers in Belgium. Just get your phone unlocked (almost all carriers will do this now) and buy a SIM card at the airport or a grocery store. Save yourself endless requests for Wi-Fi passwords and coffees you don’t need. Check whether a restaurant is any good before blindly walking in at the behest of the very insistent “host” or “hostess” or the overly-friendly cab driver or concierge. Just get validation from two or more sources and you’re good.

Three (a UK telecom) offers a great SIM card that works nearly anywhere in Europe, as well as Australia and New Zealand that can be topped up with 1gb of data for £10. This can be quite handy so you’re not buying multiple SIM cards. If the UK is your first destination on a longer Europe trip, consider stopping in one of their stores and picking one up.

For reference, I usually go through 1gb every 2 weeks with normal usage (so don’t stream video/movies, play games that take a huge amount of bandwidth etc). Roughly 1 hour of phone calls via Skype or Google Voice will probably use about 100mb of data, so just avoid even worrying about buying minutes since it’ll just complicate the value prop. This site – http://prepaid-data-sim-card.wikia.com is the best crowd-sourced resource for the prepaid SIM card options (and activation/topping up) in every country.

If you have a Google-backed phone (like any Nexus or the Pixel), Project Fi is also a great option with a similar pricing model –$10/gb which just autocharges your credit card for each additional GB and works in 135 countries.

Most of the US carriers now offer international roaming plans that you can pre-purchase before you leave. Verizon costs $10/day and T-Mobile is free, but runs on much slower EDGE/2G networks that (we’re currently on 4G for those not paying attention). Save yourself the pain and plan ahead.

5) Don’t Overplan

Pro Tip: Stop moving around! Visit one or two destinations, not five!

A classic American mistake is to try to see 5 cities in 9 days on the one week of vacation they take per year. Try to show some restraint and visit one or maybe two destinations.

That’s it.

Resist the temptation to cram in as much as you can.

A) It’s way more expensive to hop around every two days. Really, those train tickets and Easyjet flights add up.

B) You’re not really going to get the feel of a city or make any friends who actually live there if you only spend time running from tourist attraction to tourist attraction, so you’ll like never come back and you’ve only seen the “It’s a small world” version of the country. Quite unrealistic.

Operate under the assumption that you can always come back to that part of the world (It’s only a plane ride away and fares are likely to only get cheaper as a relative cost to the rest of our spending). London and Prague will still be there in 10 years, so don’t feel pressure to visit them in addition to Amsterdam AND Rome.

Pro Tip: See only some of the sites. Assume that you can come back on another trip.

This holds especially true for activities within a city. Some people completely wear themselves out by criss-crossing the town trying to see every single sight. Sure, the museums are impressive, but do you have to see the ENTIRE Louvre?

That’s exhausting.

Your travel companions may hate you by the end.

Especially for group travel, I follow the guideline “one group activity per day, everything else is optional” Go off and do your own things and meet up for dinner, or take a day trip to a castle and let people break off to nap or shop when you get back. That way you can regroup energized and eager to tell your stories or make recommendations to other subgroups (remember you’re all in the destination for at least a few days, right?)

6) Be Flexible and Be Yourself

Lastly, travel really rewards flexibility.

Pro Tip: Shoulder season is where it’s at.

Consider visiting during shoulder seasons when the weather is still nice and the prices are way cheaper.

I don’t understand why people are so uncompromising and insist on traveling during the peak summer season or right during the holidays, when prices are high and most airlines and hotels are at capacity.

Yes, it’s more disruptive to pull kids out of school, but it’s almost a given that they’re going to learn so much more from going to Thailand than the week they were going to spend at school. Similarly, yes you can get away with taking more time off during the holidays, but most people don’t use their vacation days fully anyway. Make the conscious choice to block out a week or two at a time when far fewer people are traveling.

You’re really setting yourself up for a substandard (and expensive) experience trekking around Rome in July or hitting Vail over New Years. If you’re unwilling to be flexible and take more control of your life and work schedule (which often means only having a minorly uncomfortable conversation with your boss or kid’s teacher or coach), you’ll likely condemning yourself to crummy vacations for the next 20 years.

Pro Tip: Do More of What You Like and Less of What You Don’t

Reflect on previous trips to figure out what you like and what you don’t.

For me, I like urban density (I get bored easily), but I dislike overly touristic centers and cities, so going to huge cities that don’t draw hoards of boorish tourists like Seoul, Mexico City and Sao Paulo really appeals to me. Hard Rock Cafe and Margaritaville need not apply.

A decent gay scene helps too (for fun but also safety), so I have less of a desire to go to the Middle East or Sub-Saharan Africa and more to secondary European and South American cities like Cologne, Gothenburg, Quito and Mar del Plata.

Pro Tip: Do what works for you

Similarly, think about what features have defined your best trips.

Was it access to nature? (San Francisco, Taipei)

Being on boats? (Thailand, Croatia)

A culinary scene where you could just wander and stumble upon great food and drinks? (Singapore, Buenos Aires)

Do more of those things and less of what you think is “expected” of you as a traveler. Make your own choices, don’t just live by the ones made for you.

Conclusion

I partly wrote this article to share with friends who want the zeitgeist for better travel, but I don’t want to make it go on forever. Should I continue with an additional installment? Let me know in the comments.

Do you have any tips that have helped you? Add them below too!

Read the rest of this article at Travel Hacking Tips for the Non-Hacker (Part 2).

I had a chance to catch up with a lot of friends over the holidays and invariably the question “I don’t have time to research blogs and Flyertalk for years. What are the 3-5 things I should know about travel?”

So here’s my attempt to distill my worldview into a few helpful tips, for people who maybe don’t want to make this a full time thing. Feel free to share with friends and family who just want a single link.

1) Stop Overpacking – Don’t Check Bags

The overarching theme of many of these tips is “simplify.” Don’t add unnecessary complexity into your trip.

One of the easiest ways to make your travel experience less complicated is to stop taking so much stuff. I often feel bad for those people that you see at the airport lugging massive bags for one week trips. I never check a bag unless I’m taking liquids home (like wine or whiskey). Except for maybe skiing, I think it’s completely possible to get away with never checking a bag even with combined work and leisure trips. Here’s how:

Pro Tip: If you’re traveling for more than 5-7 days, consider just doing laundry.

That way you can economize and take far fewer changes of clothes. It’s easy to find an Airbnb or Homeaway rental with a washer/dryer, even if it’s just at one destination on your journey. But cutting that suitcase in half means saving hundreds of dollars in bag fees, taxi luggage surcharges and chiropractor bills from back issues that result from lugging a massive suitcase around.

There are also plenty of places that will do what’s called “wash & fold” (just regular laundry) and charge by the kilogram. Prices vary worldwide, but it usually costs less than $15 for all of the clothes in my roller suitcase and they turn it around within 24 hours, so it’s trivial to drop off and pick up.

Lastly, investing in a roller suitcase that’s carry on size compliant will save a lot of pain and heartache standing in line to check and weigh bags. No fun at all. You also save time by avoiding the baggage claim or the possibility of lost luggage. That 40-50mins of extra waiting per flight really adds up quickly.

Pro Tip: Consider ditching or storing a bag and picking it up again

Want to go to some of the Thai islands, but have stops in Singapore and Bangkok as well? Having a few days in Zurich before hitting the ski slopes? Most international airports and train stations have luggage storage options that can simplify your bag logistics. I’ll often stash a change of clothes in a weekend bag (my personal item) to take with me on sidetrips and leave my roller suitcase at an airport — especially if I’m on a 23 hour layover.

2) Be your own advocate

Another source of complaints comes from passengers who never take the initiative or even look at their reservation after booking. Travel is the art of rationing out finite resources. You need to make your needs clear so that the airline or lodging provider knows what to do with you.

Pro Tip: Choose a seat so you’re not stuck in the back or middle seat.

Many people complain to me that they got crappy seats. So I ask when they bought their tickets and am usually met with “well months ago!”

Does the airline let you assign seats at booking? Take advantage of it! Do they charge for it? It might be worth paying for seat assignments if avoiding a middle seat is that important to you (for me, it’s honestly not a big deal for flights under 4 hours). After booking, look at your reservation on the airline’s website. If you don’t see a seat assignment, you don’t have one. Unless you’re flying Southwest or an airline that doesn’t assign seats, you will be assigned one at check in. However, by then, only the middle seats in the back will likely be left.

Pro Tip: Do your research on backup options

Ok, so you’re stuck with a delay. They happen. But you don’t just have to sit there huffing about. Get on the internet, check the airline’s website or app and see what options you have.

First determine if the cause of the delay is within the airline’s control (crew, mechanical/maintenance and inbound aircraft count, weather and ATC delays do not). If it is, you’re going to have a much easier time convincing the airline to rebook you. If it’s something like weather or ATC, very likely no planes are likely getting out, so there’s little reason to stress when very little can be done.

Second, determine whether there are downstream dependencies – did your two hour layover now become a -30 minute layover? Ok you’re going to miss your connecting flight and it’s in the airline’s interest to rebook you.

Next, just do a basic search on Google Flights. If the airline is still selling a ticket from wherever your are to where you want to go, then that’s probably your best option. Go to a gate agent, service desk agent or call the airline with that itinerary picked out. Don’t rely on the airline computer systems to give you the most optimal itinerary or rebook you automatically because you’re going to miss a connection. Many carriers whitelist their own websites on their onboard Wi-Fi, meaning that you can rebook yourself while in flight instead of waiting to land. Expertflyer can be helpful too, but that’s a paid tool.

It also helps to understand which carriers are really close partners. American, British Airways and Iberia are more likely to rebook on each other. So are Delta, Virgin Atlantic, Air France, KLM and Alitalia. United, Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian and ANA all have joint ventures together and share revenue from routes any of the two carriers fly. Use this knowledge to your advantage.

If your UA flight cancels and everyone is trying to get on the next United flight, propose a flight on Austrian or Swiss to an agent instead (if there’s space). They’ll likely be thankful that your solved your own problem.

Lastly, put the delay in perspective. 30 minutes isn’t going to make a huge difference, especially if it’s your last flight. Make sure you aren’t spinning wheels just to get home within 10 mins of your original flight.

As an aside, I think you’re setting yourself up for failure if you’re scheduling events right after the time that you’re supposed to arrive in your destination. Maybe that really important business meeting should be scheduled more than an hour after touchdown…

Just grab a coffee and a pastry and watch another episode of Game of Thrones. I always bring snacks so I don’t get hangry during tarmac delays.

Pro Tip: If you have a special request, make it known – but also consider that it might not be for you

If you’re traveling with an elderly parent, or several kids, or need special assistance, be sure to give yourself more time and longer connections. Let airport and airline personnel know of your needs — in many cases airline agents can document your record in the notes if you call in so that other agents can see it. If you require a special meal, don’t assume the airline will have it. Even if the airline confirms a special meal (fewer and fewer do so these days) consider just bringing what works for you onboard rather than risk going hungry.

Lastly, if you have particular needs, consider if the destination or activities are for you. If you have bad knees, perhaps Machu Picchu might not be a good idea. Get easily carsick, perhaps skip yacht week. Germaphobe? Maybe a bungalow in the jungle or tropical island isn’t for you. 5 kids? A Tokyo Airbnb that fits you may cost a fortune. Be sure that you aren’t setting yourself up for a hard time or being strong-armed by friends or family into going to a place that’s just not a good fit.

To Be Continued

Since I can never seem to write an article under 1000 words, I’ll be adding the second half of this piece next week. Stay tuned!

In the meantime, I partly wrote this article to share with friends who want the zeitgeist for better travel. Do you have any tips that have helped you? Share them in the comments below!

Read the rest of this article at Travel Hacking Tips for the Non-Hacker (Part 1).

But what if they didn’t? Can machines replace these bottlenecks and do it in a way that doesn’t slow us down? What would an airport look like? Let’s take a look at the worst offenders of wasting time.

This is a continuation of a series I’ve been writing for the past few months on the future of travel. You can read the other articles here:

1. End-to-End Connectivity
2. Agentless Airports
3. Thinner, Longer Route Networks
4. All-Business Class Flights & Terminals
5. The Rise of Inflight Branding
6. Autonomous Aircraft
7. Hotels Becoming Homes
8. The End of Tourist Traps

Check In and Bag Drop

More and more airlines are launching mobile and online check-in, but some like Ryanair and Vueling are going one step further and issuing boarding passes when you book your ticket.

Online check in is great, especially if you don’t have to check bags. While flights domestically in the US and within the Schengen Zone in Europe don’t require a passport, making it possible to mint boarding passes online and send them to your phone, most airlines require passport information to be both input and verified. This means a person has to look at it, to ensure the person at the airport matches the person with a ticket (which goes through a security database).

But perhaps one day, immigration laws will become interoperable or reciprocal. Or more likely, we could use facial recognition to validate that the right person is going with the appropriate ticket, much like automated immigration in the EU.

Bag drops are already becoming self-serve with the three major US carriers piloting them at their hubs. Passengers can now print their tags at home or at the kiosk and the dropping off doesn’t really need a person to mind it (think of it as a reverse baggage claim), so quite soon we may head straight to security, even for an international flight.

Security

Much of the theater at security checkpoints is improving. Rather than posting a person at the line to check if you have a valid boarding pass (because, it’s not like anyone can buy a refundable ticket…), many European airports (LHR, TXL, CPH) are using automated gates that open when you scan them.

More interesting is the idea of screening bags with a remote reviewer or using machine learning to recognize dangerous items. Rather than having security teams at every checkpoint, you could have one centralized center that reviews bags and station people only at the checkpoints to handle secondary screenings. Delta is piloting a system that allows passengers to unpack and pack their belongings in parallel. Startups are currently developing technology that can identify explosive residue from a distance and localize it to an area only a few feet across, so we may get subjected to fewer pat downs swabs.

Lounge

While most passengers don’t have access to airport lounges, one gripe of road warriors that do are crowded lounges or those that have a huge line to get in (usually caused by a bottleneck due to a passenger unable to find their credentials or a lounge that is completely full. This is partially solved by similar access gates to enter, but some airlines, like Finnair, are toying with the idea of variable pricing for their day passes so that lounge utilization is high without being 100%

Duty Free

While I’m not a huge duty free shopper, some people are and dread waiting in line to checkout. I’ve been stuck waiting watching the clock tick closer to departure. Frankfurt and London are both piloting gate delivery of duty free items, but what’s cooler is that you can buy the items on your phone.

Boarding

Boarding is probably my least favorite part of the process and probably the hardest to improve (many researchers have tried), there is still value in self-serve automated boarding gates, particularly to process frequent travelers so that personnel can better focus attention on less frequent flyers who may need help with document checks or finding their boarding passes.

With more and more bus gates, airports sometimes permit boarding from the front and back of the plane, roughly halving the time to board. 380s also board more quickly because of their two floors and four aisles (branching is good for efficiency, as are taller ceilings. Newer plane designs will likely take advantage of learning from the past, with larger overhead bins, steps cut into the seats and better signage.

Transit and Ticketing Desks

One of the biggest pains when traveling is getting stuck in a reticketing line after a cancellation or missed connection. These lines take forever because everyone has a different itinerary and it takes a while to search and book the ticket. Many non-standardized actions makes for a long wait, which can be particularly frustrated when you see your viable options to get home depart before you can see someone. Sure, calling the phone center can boost your chances of a faster rebooking, but many carriers abroad still require you to talk to a person.

Airlines are getting better at writing rebooking algorithms and presenting them to you via their app or website, in a similar tabular fashion to what you see on OTAs or their own website.

Automated vouchers for food, taxis and accommodations are right around the corner. You could envision a future where a flight cancels and everybody is immediately emailed food and hotel vouchers and the app springs up a notification, presenting options to rebook (though there may be a mad dash for limited inventory). United has a system like this in place, and AA has an autodialer call you with an alternate flight you can accept (although I usually can find a better one)

Immigration and Customs

Immigration lines can be really trying, and I’ve already mentioned some of the automation already being rolled out (Global Entry, gates in the EU, facial recognition) which is applicable here too. Mobile Passports on your phone are being piloted in the US and kiosks are becoming more common, allowing immigration facilities to process passengers 2-3x as fast. You should also make sure to prepare all of your travel documents including your passport, partner visa, boarding pass and everything else your destination country requires.

Baggage Claim

Lastly, just before we’re about to leave the airport, we’re stuck waiting for our bags, which may come out first or last. But bags are getting tracked more closely. While current trackers can tell you whether a bag has made it to your arrival airport, trackers in the future, combined with your phone or a clever set of monitors might be able to tell you to be at the claim at precisely the right time rather than waiting around like a chump. Delta has already installed thousands of RFID readers and instlled 3800 RFID tag printers at most of its stations. All it would take is making the sensor data available on the app and you’ll know exactly where your bag is.

Conclusion

With airports devoid of lines, how would things change? Would the cutoffs for check-in and boarding be closer to the actual departure time? Would it become a series of lounges of various quality and price points? How do you see lines being tackled by airports? Comment Below!

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: The End of Lines.

1. End-to-End Connectivity
2. Agentless Airports
3. Thinner, Longer Route Networks
4. All-Business Class Flights & Terminals
5. The Rise of Inflight Branding
6. Autonomous Aircraft
7. Hotels Becoming Homes

Now, onto a subject that deals with exploring on the ground

Tourist Traps Exist Because of Assymmetric Information.

THEY know that there’s a better restaurant around the corner, but YOU don’t.

THEY know that the museum is overrated or the club is completely empty, but why would they tell YOU when they can easily pocket your money for a substandard experience.

Similarly, every writeup in every guidebook will hype up 3rd rate churches, museums, temples and restaurants and neglect to mention the entry fee of that the cocktails come from a jug. Every beach is a must see. The travel writer is generally paid to make every corner of the planet as interesting as humanly possible.

These factors combine to give us the classic tourist trap, the “Ripley’s Believe it or Not” or the restaurant with the overeager (and sometimes really attractive) host or hostess with terrible, overpriced food.

Enter Mobile Internet Abroad

Now travelers can learn from each other’s past mistakes. If a place is a scam, reviews and star ratings let us know before we go and those places start having to try harder. I can now check on my phone for nearby places that offer a much better, high quality experience and patronize them over the shops and restaurants in the “Times Square” of wherever I’m visiting (don’t worry, the US has plenty of its own tourist traps too – especially Times Square).

While not perfect, ratings from Google, Yelp and (sigh) Tripadvisor can also help me figure out what kind of patron various places are targeting. I learned to ignore all of the upset travelers posting negative reviews because pretty every restaurant in Portugal charges for bread placed on the table (It’s called cover, it’s a thing, move on).

Fast Forward 20 years

So in the spirit of this series, what happens when everyone has mobile data and avoids the Hard Rock Cafes and crappy brasseries serving warm beer?

I’d like to think that places relying on assymmetric information will either get better, change hands or close — especially as people travel more and diversify their behavior while abroad. But what else?

It Might Not Be All Rosy

We might end up exchanging tourist traps for the Yelp effect — everyone concludes “oh we could go to the place rated 4.5 stars, but there’s a place rated 4.6 next door” 4.5 star place closes while the 4.6 place gets swamped.

Generally the Yelp effect is heaping of local maxima in a general vicinity – this is great if you’re that ONE restaurant or store, but it also causes a triaging of resources – long lines, rushed service, reservation only. It kind of takes the fun out of serendipitous exploration – wandering and happening upon cool places that just haven’t made it on to the internet, or deliberately don’t want to be overrun with tourists snapping instagram photos (the prevalence of No Photos signs in Europe is dramatically on the rise).

Celebrity Status

Moreover, we’ll likely see more of the “Anthony Bourdain Effect” (well, I kind of like Anthony Bourdain, let’s call it the “Guy Fieri Effect”). This can be even worse than Yelp heaping because now it bestows a firehose of patronage onto tiny coffee kiosks, cronut stands, banh mi carts, subway station michelin-starred holes in the wall.

In some ways, this is great for the owners of these places, but like any business, you’re looking to maximize profits. You may halve the quality and double the prices to ration demand or go for scale over quality. You might close your cart in favor of a pristine new eatery in a strip mall, killing all of the charm and ambiance that people originally came for. Or become an international chain with locations on 3 continents (::cough:: Din Tai Fung).

Many would argue that they’re being rewarded for good work. But most cities are dynamic, changing beasts. The Studio 54 of yesteryear is no longer cool when it’s in a Vegas casino, nor do I need to go to Paris to get Laduree (try Pierre Herme – they’re better) macarons when I can get them in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Osaka or Miami.

What’s worse is for places that expand too quickly, building new locations, if the hype machine passes them by, then the owners are saddled with debt and it may sink the entire enterprise.

The Anti-Yelp

There’s probably a happy medium. All small business owners want their enterprises to succeed, but may not have the tools or desire to run a multi-continent restaurant empire. I think (purely anecdotally when searching alongisde friends) that we’re already starting to see Yelp and Google show different results to different people, which smoothes the local maxima problem You may like Starbucks and I may never set foot in one, so yes show it to you, but never show it to me, even if it is highly rated)

Manufacturing Celebrity

Growing too are the armies of celebrities. Yes, police departments respond in force when a Kardashian is robbed, but the number of people with followings is becoming more democratized. Instead of 3 or 4 traveling chef shows, there may be 50 tastemakers in the same niche in the future – on a particular style of food or cultural tourism, so highlights of local treats and experiences attract attention and new visitors, but don’t turn the place into a shopping mall. Does anyone really follow what’s being served in the White House these days? They used to.

Conclusion

So hopefully, the internet in everyones’ pockets will steer us away from bad overpriced food and rude service and give us more tools to explore. Celebrities become curators instead of tools of mass market consumption. The hope is that as you travel, and especially as you visit the same cities over and over, you branch out to different neighborhoods, make friends, go for reasons other than to take the same pictures everyone else does.

That will make for a world with richer experiences and worthiness to explore.

Agree? Disagree? Think Guy Fieri will start opening food malls in Asia too? Comment below!

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: The End of Tourist Traps.

Big Brand Hobble Along

Big brands and their limited ability to segment will likely suffer as the options for lodging diversify — a good boutique hotel or bed and breakfast and decent SEO and relationships with a few major OTAs will be able to compete head to head with the Westin down the street, attracting more specific (often monied) customer segments by offering a supremely differentiated experience.

Chip Conley, Global Head of Hospitality and Strategy at Airbnb, has likened hotels to “jails” with cells and fixed eating schedules (want breakfast after 9am? sorry!) As the former CEO of Joie De Vivre hotels, he sees the world shifting towards hospitality, not housing — when you travel, you want to stay in places that feel like home, not a dentist’s office.

Diverse Ways to Diversify

What would this mean for the hotel chains? How do you make a 150 room building feel more like a home? As chains divest their real estate holdings and simply license the brands, how do you ensure dependability while bringing a differentiated experience to market?

There are a couple ways to approach this. First, hotels are experimenting with shrinking the room size in new properties and adding self-service options (kitchens, grab-and-go stores, washing machines) and common spaces, emulating a number of rooms in the home and how we spend time in them.

I tend to spend way more awake time in the living room reading or kitchen entertaining friends than the unconscious time in the bed, so why give guests only a bustling lobby or formal restaurant as an alternative to their bed? Similarly, some hotels like The Standard are piloting the idea of opening up their common spaces to homeshare guests. If you’re new to real estate investing, don’t have a lot of time or money to invest, or would like to invest in larger projects but aren’t an accredited investor, group real estate investing may be the ideal solution for you.

Is Technology the Answer?

The best technology amplifies substantive human interactions and minimizes transactional ones. Hotels have historically delivered service through concierges, butlers, maids and maitre d’hotels — all 18th and 19th century inventions that were far more high-touch hosting positions than they are today. The answer is probably not a plethora of apps that add to the clutter, but using technology to enable curated, authentic experiences — a gluten free treat from the bakery down the street (the hotel knows you’re allergic because you told a waiter on a previous stay), not a muffin wrapped in sterile plastic.

Interfaces that are invisible, like locks activated by your phone, automated check-in and check-out, bookings by the hour or even minute can help the guest convey transactional information (length of stay, early/late check-in/out, form of payment) without lines or pre-programmed responses conjured up by the customer relations department “Welcome back Mr. Bingham, thank you for being a platinum member!” doesn’t evoke sincerity or personalization as much as chains think they do. Technology will continue to minimize transactional human interactions, but hopefully it will open the doors for more substantive ones.

Building Home Away From Home

Traditional lodging away from home will start to look and feel more like home as the big brands morph and diversify their identity. Even as Airbnb gobbles up houses and apartments all over the world, I could see entire floors of properties gutted and reconfigured to offer a different co-living/working experience, or perhaps leased to a successful Airbnb superhost that can design and style the rooms, and get Terminix kentucky to ensure the place is pest free.

Mastering Local Culture

When traveling for work, I tend to stay at slightly edgier, small hotels close to city centers so I can easily find a coffeeshop or bar after meetings, but I would probably book towards hotels that offered “micro” cultural experiences for the very limited downtime on a 18 hour stay. The Hilton Reykjavik and Sheraton D-Cube city in Seoul do this very well with a huge Icelandic sauna / Korean jimjilbang and health club that guests have access to. But there are so many soft experiences that could be grafted onto existing hotels that move them more towards local and away from the mass-market trends of the 80’s and 90’s.

The Bureaucrats (and Residents) Get Their Say

Lastly, while local governments are fighting back against short term rentals, under the premise that they take away housing from current residents, policies will likely stabilize, recognizing that cities often need flexible housing supply that caters to uneven peaks and troughs of demand. Will Rio be able to fill all of the hotels it built for the Olympics? Perhaps during Carnivale, but probably not every day. The income from Airbnb rentals help many residents’ pay rent for several months, allowing them to live most of the year in the city at a subsidized rate. It also opens the city to travelers that may not be able to afford big brand hotels, but can afford a spare guest room (or an air mattress – which is how Airbnb started).

Conclusion

How do you see hotels evolving? Is the Westin White Tea Aloe scent going to be seen as a cornerstone of hotel innovation or the apex of the former Age of Mass Market Consistency? Would you stay in a flexible live/work space? Do you think in-person concierge recommendations are useful or smarmy?

Comment Below!

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: Hotels Becoming Homes.

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: Autonomous Aircraft.

Air Travel Will Become Increasingly Differentiated

I firmly believe we’re still in the Model T Era of air travel. You can have any seat you want, as long as it’s coach, business or first (“Now our newest product! Premium Economy!”). Carriers compete on price and frequency, but a few have found ways to differentiate themselves (on service — Singapore, stylishness — Virgin Atlantic, punctuality — Delta, route network — Finnair) and are starting to realize that they can charge a fare premium for doing so (according to a normalized analysis I did of their 10ks last year).

Other carriers are competing by taking the Wal-Mart approach and gobbling up smaller competitors, where economies of scale will provide the cheapest airfare.

But many carriers, including some in the first group are being strategic in how they differentiate, providing drastically different experiences at different prices to people who paid roughly the same for an economy or business class ticket.

Ancillaries Are Higher Margin Than Tickets

What’s the motivation of this “unbundling” of air travel? Well, by taking apart everything that originally came included with a ticket, carriers are cutting out waste generated by giving services to people who don’t need them. Providing dining services on the ground means less to cater in the air. Allowing elites to select their benefits a la carte allows passengers to derive higher value from their status than bestowing benefits that they see no value in.

More importantly, “ancillaries” — a catch-all term to describe all product offerings that aren’t airline tickets, are typically higher margin than selling the seats themselves — Google Flights and OTA have essentially created market-based pricing for seats between city pairs as carriers often match each other within hours.

Most businesses, when looking for growth, seek out ways to improve margin over revenue, and ancillaries are proving a great boon to airlines who offer them.

Airlines Design End-To-End Experiences for 14 Hours

So we’re starting to see the rise of partnerships with well-known brands and experiences. Delta has Westin Heavenly Bed, United partners with Sax Fifth Avenue. Jetblue amenity kits are made by Birchbox and IFE is sponsored by DirecTV. Alaska serves Sun Liquors, SAS has Hastens Bedding and Mikkeller beer, Finnair partners with design brand Merimekko, Korean with Absolut — but this is probably just the beginning.

Airlines are waking up to the fact that they have to design complete end-to-end experiences for thousands of people daily, often up to 14 or 16 hours on ultra-longhaul flights. This presents a great marketing opportunity, where the airline can rely on companies that have built powerful brands on the ground, rather than providing “standard issue” food, beverages, IFE and amenities. Perhaps provide Starbucks coffee for free, but Clover (or Blue Bottle or Stumptown Coffee) made with bottled water for $4 – I’m willing to bet a SWU that people (at least ardent coffee drinkers) will buy this.

Carriers have often been sensitive to providing a consistent experience across their entire fleet — and this is where foreign carriers, having 1 or 2 hubs and higher percentage of long-haul departures have excelled, leveraging key aspects of their country’s “brand” as differentiators. Korean and Asiana always have bibimbap onboard and ANA offers a kaiseki menu in first.

But this can be taken many steps further beyond the one-off partnership or reliance on local cuisine and tastes. Carriers are starting to look to regional flare (especially in the US) and even entire branded experiences. Instead of a “blank and blank” for $10, sell me a Woodford Reserve Manhattan or Bombay Sapphire Martini for $15 — Offer an XBOX or NFL-branded experience to make middle seats more attractive — Instead of status tiers, provide incremental benefits a la carte as I hit 10,000 flown mile or $1000 spend bonuses (maybe I value a free bag more than priority boarding or lounge access, let me select the order so you lock me in with the benefits I value sooner)

But What About Costs and Distribution?

Sure, the naysayers out there are all about creating the most efficient experience possible. Aircraft weight is serious business and adding new products might get in the way of that. Furthermore, historically, carriers that wanted to offer a consistent experience (or drive unit procurement costs down) have only interacted with brands that can provide the volume for every passenger on every flight. Believe me, there are only a handful of wineries and distilleries that can provide enough inventory for EVERY flight on American, Delta or United.

Yes, there may be slightly higher costs to stocking a few bottles of vermouth, or a few packs of ground premium coffee, but by giving brands more access to a captive marketing experience is likely to be highly profitable for the carriers, especially if they partner with smaller premium brands that operate on higher margins, and offer a wider rotational variation of products on flights (maybe split by hub or region). They may even find partners that pay for most of the distribution costs, just to have access to passengers in a non-obtrusive way — a low pressure way to sample a product without being pressured to do so.

Conclusion – This Is Just The Beginning

After all, passengers are getting more comfortable with novelty and choice as we fly out of the Model T Era. I’ll gladly take 1,000 movies on demand (by Netflix) over the same Simpsons episode that only changes fleet-wide every two weeks. Perhaps I want to buy fast Amazon Wi-Fi on one flight (over free or cheaper Gogo) and Veuve Cliquot champagne service on another (over $7 Lamarca Prosecco), and check a bag with pricey souvenirs with delivery protection by Fedex (over the free one I get as a silver) on a third.

By ramping up ancillaries and branded experiences, carriers can integrate air travel into a life that’s more similar to one on the ground — and likely make more money in the process.

What do you think? Will branded experiences be better or worse for passengers? Do you like bundled or unbundled experiences? Comment below!

Read the rest of this article at The Future Of Travel: The Rise of Inflight Branding.

An Airport Without Agents

This one is already underway. At several airports in Europe, the security queue is guarded by an electronic gate where you scan your boarding pass to enter. A person doesn’t check you.

In the US, I can’t remember the last time I’ve talked to a check-in agent. Automated self-tagging and bag drops are becoming more common, as are kiosks. Even boarding and lounges are moving to automated gates.

This is great for us, since it means fewer bottlenecks where someone looks at a piece of paper and lets you pass. It also means that it frees up airport and airline employees to help passengers who need more assistance (first time travelers, families, people with mobility issues).

Currently, I can show up to the airport 45 minutes before nearly any departure in most US and European airports, slip through security, mobile boarding pass in hand and be at the gate with a comfortable amount of time to spare, maybe even with enough time to grab a coffee from the lounge. I think this will become the norm for more and more people, especially as they become more sophisticated travelers.

After talking with over 50 airlines this year as part of my day job, the one common message is clear. Airlines are feeling increasingly constrained by the high cost of labor. Span of control (the number of direct reports a manager or executive has) at corporate has ballooned and fewer people are left covering more markets and activities than they did even 5 or 10 years ago.

Spinning up a workforce of 2 or 3 people in every outstation you fly to is also impractical, so airlines rely heavily on contract ground staff at many small and midsize airports (or even larger operations where there may be 1 airline employee supervising 6 or 7 contractors who do check-in, tagging and boarding tasks)

But most travelers aren’t us. We know the drill, the process and can breeze through crowded airport situations in a fraction of the time (boarding pass already minted, packed light in a carry-on, can use priority boarding lane). What about infrequent travelers that show up to the airport 3 (or more!) hours in advance, get frustrated the check-in desk isn’t open for their flight yet and languish in the departure hall for an hour until it does? Machines don’t care when you or they arrive.

Airlines might be well-served in identifying passengers that have a relationship with them, even if it’s a cursory one (like flying once a year to get from college to home) that won’t get you status and work on automating the experience for them as early majority travelers. Proactive push notifications and more intuitive self-service apps are part of the improvements, so are reducing process bottlenecks (Vueling simply sends you a boarding pass when you purchase your ticket).

Where Do You Stand On This?

In theory, people on the ground should be improving your experience, but it’s important to recognize that they are often in positions where the upside is a normal interaction “Here is your boarding pass” which is quickly forgettable and the downside is a service failure “That will be $150 for your oversize bag.” that can quickly sour your trip. Sure, positive interactions can also occur “You look like you’ve have a rough day, here’s your new boarding pass (Seat 1A) ::wink::” but those types of exceptions are far less likely to become automated.

Why Machines Can Help

But people will get far less irate if those negative and forgettable interactions are handled by a machine (it’s hard to get mad at a kiosk) which can enforce policies in a more uniform way, and people on the ground can override them in extenuating circumstances. Jumping to automated regimes also means that many policies get revisited and updated by corporate (like do I really need to show you my return ticket to fly to Europe?) and more evenly applied. People, even employees, forget baggage allowances, routing rules, seat maps or even directions to the lounge and that can be especially frustrating as a customer if you realize you’re more up to date on the airline policies than its own employee or contractor is.

So where do you stand? Do you look forward to fewer airline and contract employees and more self-service by machines? How about your mom or your Uncle Joe?

Will a country or airport authority roll out their first automated terminal?

It’s not inconceivable that in the future, when you get to the airport, or when your Uncle Joe gets to the airport, the first person they encounter is actually the one welcoming them onboard.

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: Agentless Airports.

A Brief History Lesson

The first all-business class planes were, of course, the Concorde. Built as a partnership between the UK and French governments with British Airways and Air France as anchor airlines, the Concorde could fly New York and Washington DC to Paris and London in 3 and a half hours – cruising at roughly Mach 2.0. Many other routes were chartered and explored, though most didn’t stick due to noise complaints and operating costs. Service was similar to business class at the time, but with first class ticket prices. Sadly, due to the 1973 oil crisis, where the price of oil increased by nearly 4x, most subsequent orders were cancelled in the next few months and supersonic travel never took off.

Fast forward to the early 2000’s, Singapore Airlines had two non-stop flights from their hub in Singapore to both Los Angeles and Newark. At the time they were the longest flights in the world and were operated by an a340-500, due to the added safety over open water with four engines and the aircraft’s impressive range. To make the weight calculations work, Singapore configured the aircraft to have just 100 business class seats, rather than the typical 300-330 you see on most a340-500s. Business travelers loved it, since it skipped a connection in Hong Kong or Seoul, but as fuel prices rose, Singapore cancelled the flights and sold the planes.

A Differentiated Future?

Now, with oil at fairly low prices, we’re starting to see all-business class flights pop up on routes like London – New York (British Airways, La Compagnie), New York-Paris (La Compagnie) and London – Doha (Qatar Airways) and companies like Boom at cutting contracts with the Virgin Group to offer supersonic business class flights that halve the travel time of transoceanic travel. They’re betting that people will be willing to pay $5000 to fly from New York to London in 3 hours and 15 minutes, similar to the Concorde.

Furthermore, as airlines try to differentiate themselves with additional services like chauffeur transfers and tarmac rides in sedans, the incentive to simply create their own premium building on airport property will give them much more control over aspects like staffing ratios, security, duty free sales and boarding. By controlling the experience, like Lufthansa does with the First Class Terminal in Frankfurt and Emirates does with separate floors for business and first class passengers in the a380 terminal in Dubai, airlines can better manage expectations and lines — though it begs the question whether sequestering luxury travelers from coach flyers would be good optics or PR. For a more convenient and luxurious mode of travel, passengers may take advantage of using luxury transportation and consider being members of a Private Plane Charter Program. 

A study conducted by the University of Toronto  concluded that air rage incidents were 4 times as likely on planes with a first class cabin (especially if economy passengers had to walk through it to board the plane) than on planes with an all-economy configuration. Many low cost carriers forego a forward cabin entirely, so if coach is a race to the bottom, maybe this opens up a market for an all-business class airline to cherry-pick routes between wealthy cities with healthy business demand.

How do you see this bifurcation play out? Will passengers demand more and more variations in experience at different price points?

Are we seeing air travel turn a corner, much like how automobiles went from Model T’s (you can have it in any color, as long as it’s black) to sportscars, minivans and sedans?

Will sequestering luxury travels drive governmental policy responses in the form of higher taxes (like the UK’s Air Passenger Duty, which is tiered by distance and cabin of service)?

Start the discussion below!

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: All Business Class Flights & Terminals.

Prediction 2: Smaller Jets Flying Farther

The 787s and a350s now flying are opening up routes that weren’t possible just a few years ago. San Francisco to Singapore and Barcelona, for instance.

Up until recently, if an airline wanted to connect two cities that are far apart, it had to fly a big airplane with big fuel tanks, like a 777, a340, 747 or a380. But what if that city couldn’t support 500 or even 300 seats per day. Up until recently, an airline just wouldn’t fly the route.

These new aircraft open up more routes that wouldn’t have been profitable before, but more importantly it shows a trend. Airlines will buy long-range aircraft to put on thin routes. 2x per day with two smaller planes better serves passenger demands than one big jumbo jet once per day.

In the next few years, we’ll likely see newer aircraft that are even smaller and longer range. A 757-sized aircraft that could fly to Asia perhaps. Lower density configurations. These are optimistic predictions, sure, but you’re seeing 747s being retired and a380s not quite replace them, while the a350 and 787s seem to be doing pretty well.

Think of the airline industry currently where cars and buses were 40 or 50 years ago. People took buses more and maybe shared a family car. Now, 2 and 3 car families are more normal. Uber/Lyft is ubiquitous in cities. Transportation and travel is getting more on-demand and personalized. Carriers are all about offering frequency, with many popular city pairs now sporting hourly departures and “shuttle” routes. Commuting to another city daily or weekly is attracting a whole new class of flyers and services like SurfAir and Texas Air and springing up to support them.

So fast forward 20 years, it isn’t inconceivable that single-aisle long haul service will become more common. Embraer in particular has been rumored to be working on a small to midsized aircraft with a longer, more fuel-efficient range, able to do more transoceanic hops.

You will likely see more routes connecting secondary cities point-to-point without forcing travelers to transit through hubs. Norwegian in particular is pursuing this route and it’s not a stretch to think that Air Asia or Jetstar will start eyeing the North American (or South American!) market.

Yes, this prediction is optimistic and assumes air travel will only increase in demand, but I’m willing to make that bet.

Expect more flights out of places like Portland, Sacramento, San Diego, San Antonio, Fort Lauderdale, Hartford, Baltimore to cities like Manchester, Cologne, Marseilles, Porto, Busan, Sapporo (Chitose), Prague, Xi’an, Brisbane and many other cities.

What routes do you think will get launched in the next few years?

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: Thinner, Longer Routes.

This, to me seems insane.

I’ve heard from several of the people from Routehappy that Wi-Fi is a key feature that passengers book towards and book away from airlines that lack it.

I made the argument that installing Wi-Fi across the fleet (and making it free) has a huge hidden ROI in the form of more informed passengers (they can see their own connecting information, make fewer crew requests) and the myriad of other projects that it enables (entertainment ancillaries, tiering at different speeds and many others that no one has dreamt up yet) but it fell on deaf ears.

But it gave me a great jumping off point for a series of articles!

What would the future of travel look like? Like in 10 or 15 years?

There’s a number of predictions, partly based on what leading airlines are already doing, and partly based on what I’ve heard from airline executives, conferences, articles — but tempered with an eye of what is technically feasible to implement.

So here goes some predictions – some of this was grafted from a talk I gave at AGIFORS in May, but some of it is more pan-travel than airline-focused.

Prediction 1: Internet Connectivity – End to End

We’re pretty close to this already. Airports already are getting better about offering free Wi-Fi, though it doesn’t quite reach the gate and jet bridge in many cases. That will likely change and new airports are investing in blanket, fast, free coverage.

In flight, domestic Wi-Fi is being upgraded to useable speeds and I’m currently typing this article while connected to satellite Wi-Fi on a transatlantic flight, for a reasonable price (thanks SAS!). Speeds will continue to increase, more providers will give more airlines more options.

This enables both passengers and crew to be aware of things on the ground while they’re in the air. Fewer people will miss their flights because they can’t find their connecting gates.

IFE will become “the internet” complete with an onboard browser on a touch screen so you don’t have to rely on a phone battery for 14 hours – though I could see airlines implementing some sort of IP blocker to filter out objectionable content and to develop policies against having phone calls inflight — (as an aside, you’d be surprised what people access in a relatively public cabin, not for the faint of heart)

You’ll likely see speed options become tiered, similar to how hotels approach the problem of rationing finite bandwidth. Email and simple browsing are free, but you want to stream HD video or play a hi-res game, you’re going to have to pay for it. This way, airlines can invest in newer and faster systems, but allow the slow/free option to solve many travel logistical problems like connecting gate info and rebooking.

Frankly, I’ve made the argument that unlike other upgrades like mood lighting or espresso machines, there needs to be less scrutiny on the ROI of basic wifi, since it enables so many soft, elegant solutions to many of the problems passengers and crew face in the air.

More and more carriers are signing on to transoceanic contracts, so I think it’ll start to become the norm (think of it like filling the water or fuel tanks, nobody really questions the utility of those things) and fewer airline IT departments will waffle at the prospect of installing it. Most of the things it enables haven’t even been invented yet.

How do you think Wi-Fi will be rolled out? What other innovations in technology and process will become the norm in 10 or 15 years? Comment below!

I’m going to try to turn this into a weekly or biweekly series – so check back for new predictions coming soon!

Read the rest of this article at The Future of Travel: End-to-End Wi-Fi.

Well, I figured I should come clean about why I’ve been more absentee. I’ve been working on a startup with a fellow travel hacker and friend from school for the past few months.HIGH-RISK CREDIT CARD PROCESSING FEE GUIDE helped me to carry on e-commerce. After being nomadic for 18 months, moving back to San Francisco, working on an e-commerce business and freelance consulting , why I’m working on it and get input from the community

The Problem

Most of you are probably familiar with the concept of denied boarding: airlines sell more tickets than seats on a plane, based on historic no show rates. They don’t want seats to go empty, because it’s expiring wasted inventory. If more passengers show up than expected, usually the last one to check in (or the one that has a cheap ticket through a 3rd party) is forced to take a flight later than they intended to. Most airlines try to solicit volunteers first, as it’s a kinder solution to the problem, but this strategy banks on passengers being flexible and willing to move their flight (out of the kindness of their hearts, or perhaps with some financial compensation). This often doesn’t work at peak demand times (Monday morning, the holidays, the Olympics)

Our community historically has been pretty savvy with this constraint on air travel. In my younger days, I definitely would use my status with an airline to same day confirm onto a flight with 1 economy seat left in the hopes that it oversold so I could be the first to the podium to collect a bump voucher.

But the reality for most people is that they are being told they cannot fly, or that they’ll have to wait 6 or 24 hours to get to where they’re going. Yes, they have compensation in hand, but last minute changes are pretty disruptive to most traveler’s plans and airlines pay a lot of money for waiting to the last minute to tell a passenger there isn’t a seat for them. It’s currently not efficient by any sense of the word.

What We’ve Built

So in the face of resource constraints, how do airlines continue to sell tickets close to departure, fill their planes but not inconvenience passengers by stranding them for a day or two?

We took a page from secondary markets in other industries. If you buy a company’s stock, you can (usually) sell it whenever you want on a competitive market. If you buy season tickets for a sporting event or tickets for a concert, you can resell it if you can’t go via StubHub or SeatGeek. We want to make this type of secondary market a reality for air travel.

This is hard to execute on a peer to peer basis (some have tried) because it’s like trying to identify ships crossing in the night. I may need to sell a ticket, but what are the odds that someone is willing to buy it on the same, otherwise full flight? The airlines control the distribution of their inventory and can reach nearly everyone on the plane, so we’ve decided to work with them instead of trying to do this aftermarket (much like Stubhub works with MLB, NHL, NFL etc. cutting them in on the increased revenue of higher value ticket sales minus the seller’s profit).

What Does This Mean?

In many ways, this is pretty cool. It means that, in essence, no flight should actually ever sell out. By having a secondary market, you’ll always have a list price of the most flexible person on the plane (maybe they’re a backpacker or a retiree going between winter and summer homes) which will be the current ticket price. Just oversell by one and transact the offer with that passenger. We’re building a number of systems to figure out which passengers should be targeted and how much the offers should be, but hopefully it turns air tickets (once an expensive, “buying a car” type decision) into an options market, where you buy the right to fly, but can choose to sell it back if you don’t want to, or be incentivized to change your flight from the comfort of your home/smartphone, before you pack your bags and leave for the airport.

I’m likely going to get bumped from my flight tomorrow ($410 roundtrip TATL on a 3rd party booking and no seat assignment), but I thought it would be worth explaining my slower pace of articles, and solicit your feedback and advice on trying to fix an admittedly janky and stressful part of the travel process (for passengers at the gate being informed there may not be a seat for them and gate agents that are forced to become auctioneers).

I’m sure some people in this community will be irate that we’re trying to “take their bump vouchers,” but there are a lot of gains to be had if airlines have access to virtual inventory. That 1K member or Chase Sapphire Reserve member can get a seat on any flight without stranding someone else overnight. Airlines get an opportunity to offer compensation to a wider range of passengers than those that happen to be sitting at the gate an hour before departure (anecdotally these are the ones that REALLY care about getting on their flight given how early they got there), and offer a range of ancillaries beyond a travel and food voucher (really, a free hotel night in my home city? – why not offer a lounge pass, or an upgrade or a chauffeur transfer at my destination? Airlines are digging the ability to market more directly to people).

But, I believe on standing on the shoulders of giants. And collectively, you all know way more about the travel ecosystem that I do. If you have the time and interest, and especially if you have a software development or technical background, send me an email at eric [at] avisell [dot] com and let’s set up some time to chat via Skype or phone for 30 minutes. I want to learn from your experiences and I love the fact that I’m able to marry two of my passions (travel and technology – the other is wine ? ) into something that vaguely resembles a full time job (startups are quite the roller coaster).

So I hope that helps update you on what’s going on in my life, let me know what you think in the comments or email me at the address above.

Read the rest of this article at Creating a Secondary Market for Air Travel.

Many of the Easy Manufactured Spending Strategies Are Fizzling

On the converse side, and I’m sure we have many friends and family that fall into this boat, are the people who are enamored by your pictures in JAL First class, but honestly don’t have the time or attention span to spend nearly as much energy on the hobby as you do.

You’ve hooked them into reading this blog, or more likely The Points Guy or Doctor of Credit, and they’ve signed up for the United credit card and the Amex platinum (and maybe even got a good bonus). They aren’t going to jump on ridiculously cheap cash fares because they don’t follow the twitter feeds and blogs that post about them, nor do they have a strong enough network of friends that text them “CAI-DOH-HKG $283 in J 1/25-4/1 a.i. you in for 3/7!? I’m in 3K” at 2 in the morning. And they don’t “jump” on fares at a moment’s notice.

These people will gradually dissipate and in the short to mid-term, drive less attention to the hobby. This is probably good, because we’ve gotten battered in the past few years with many devaluations because miles were flooding the markets. Carriers have to devalue when balances get too high and have to get creative about redemptions that are cheaper to provide than actually flying (like Veuve at the Skyclub). This is probably good for most of us in the middle (we care about miles and are willing to do research, but we’re not hitting up 5 grocery chains a week) as it relaxes the inflationary pressure we’ve seen on our healthy, but not huge mileage balances.

It does mean the manufactured spending game is getting harder and credit card bonuses aren’t as easy to obtain as they used to. But new products get released if you’re patient, new banks will enter the game and try to woo you from Chase or Citi and you’re becoming less reliant on miles anyway (or are at least accruing them more efficiently through a foreign program).

The ex-FlyerTalk Community Is Being Driven Underground

I’ll be honest, as someone who writes for an (admittedly small) audience, we have to be very careful about what we post, because if a carrier or bank concludes it falls on the wrong sides of the intent of the program, it will get closed fast. Airline and bank employees regularly attend FTUs. Many of them are fascinated by the creativity that comes out of this community, some are avid mileage hackers as well, but when it shows up as raw dollars flying out the window, they have an interest in making sure they still have a profitable business.

Not to mention the people who discover a loophole and then try to exploit it 100x to the extent feasible, generate suspicious behavior reports, get drunk in lounges, loudly complain to the airline or bank for not honoring some extremely technical aspect of their terms and conditions, threaten to lawyer up, publicizing their fiasco to outlets with millions of readers and generally ruin it for the rest of us. We’ve learned to avoid these people, and I’ve found myself only exchanging tips with people who have a similar amount of wonkish interest and have done their homework and also have the social skills to not throw a tantrum when they don’t get their way.

This means that private email lists, slack channels and Facebook groups have thrived, where some degree of trust is required for entry. It’s becoming both more technical AND more social. It’s easier for me to ask a relatively specific question to 10 or 20 friends who have cut their teeth and maybe know a particular program better than I do, than it is to sift through dozens of pages on FlyerTalk these days. We often build our own technical tools to expedite types of searches and speak in code, not for secrecy but for expediency (often typing with two thumbs – J is easier than “Business Class”).

In some ways, this is also great because you get much higher quality discussion that isn’t derailed by trolls or people looking to complain (really, so many complainers!) These groups act as a number of mini-skunk works of small packs of expert travelers, with different philosophies on earning and burning, how to interact with banks and carriers and different appetites for risk — which really combats the reversion to the mean that you get with “Vendoming,” lamenting Chase 5/24 and overwater bungalows in the Maldives that have been so popular over the past few years. The strategies get more diverse and not as easily packaged for mass consumption. And these communities have a clear interest in ensuring they don’t become packaged for mass consumption!

So do your homework. Make friends. Approach people in an open and constructive manner. We all started in this game somewhere, but yes there’s a steep learning curve that creates a bit of a barrier to entry. That in part makes it more fun. The fact that you used your brain to settle into seat 1A as you sit your glass of Krug, but that you used your heart to understand why you’re going to wherever you’re going in the first place.

Read the rest of this article at The Days of Travel Hacking May Be Over.

I’ve largely written off chasing status with US carriers and even engaging with their programs about two years ago, but I’m still getting outsized value from travel and still spend a lot of time in business class. Taken from a panel I was on last month around “The Future of the Game” here are some observations about how the frequent flyer community* has evolved and why an entirely different strategic approach is warranted. We’ll start with some that are obvious and move to some that are less so.

Informed Travelers are Free Agents

Gone are the days where you would suck it up and fly your US airline of choice to hit that next tier, whether it be Gold, Platinum, Diamond, Executive Platinum or 1K. Benefits have gotten watered down. Domestic first class hasn’t kept up with innovations in coach (wi-fi, recaro seats which actually add to pitch) or on the ground (decent food at airports, public rest areas, OLCI, automated lounge and boarding gates) and honestly, if you’ve flown it enough, sitting in front on a A319 doesn’t excite you.

My personal limit is generally that coach is fine for anything under 6 hours, sans red-eyes and that extends to most international flights as well with a few exceptions. So I may spring for a lie-flat seat if I’m flying to the East Coast (but likely only if going onward to Europe), but domestically I’m pretty happen with an exit row (or extra legroom seat), perhaps a mini bottle or two in my bag (shhh!) and a Gogo voucher I pre-purchased on the ground. But I also know exactly what I’m missing.

I carp on upgrades as that’s held as the sole remaining reason to seek status from a US carrier vs looking further afield to other programs, which is a strategy I strongly recommend now. Not only do many have better mileage redemption charts, but they often have lower change and cancellation fees, better earning on US domestic flights and phone agents that are polite and more highly trained, so calling them is less of an exercise in frustration and futility.

Tools Are Getting More Diverse

In addition to diversifying the programs they use, expert travelers are also getting way less shy about taking advantage of the sheer number of very good fare sales, promotions and deals that have been going on over the past two years. I’ve flown to Europe from the West Coast 3 times in the past year on three separate fare sales for under $400. Yes, you have to be flexible, but I planned these trips with several months notice and had my pick of many dates over a several month period.

Many people get this weird tension between deciding they want to go somewhere (say Japan or Spain) and then rushing to buy tickets even though they may not be going for 9 months. I take the approach of always having a list of places I’d like to check out, but no huge order as to WHEN I have to go to any of them, and then just wait for a fare sale to one of them. Similarly, for work, I’ve been having to go to Europe nearly every month, but the particular dates are flexible, so when I see a good, REALLY good fare, I book 3 of them and set up my meetings to coincide with the 7 or 10 days I’ll be on that continent.

This plethora of cash fares is combined with many other tools that make hotel and ground transportation programs and costs look silly by comparison. I can reliably stay in Airbnb’s in London for $60 USD per night in decent neighborhoods. Some nicer hostels are starting to eclipse the privacy and comfort of a lower end Starwood or IHG property and boutique hotels are getting in on the game, offering more amenities than the big chains can (free bikes, wine, friendly recommendations that don’t include hawking the bland restaurants often found in chain hotels).

Does that mean I’m racking up fewer Starpoints? Perhaps, but I only use my hotel points often for the first night when landing in a country that’s particularly difficult to navigate — and then I switch to a guesthouse.

Miles Are Playing a Smaller Role, so Understanding your Earn and Burn Goals Is Essential

I think there are a number of folks that fall into two categories: “accrue as many miles as possible with no clear goal in mind of how to spend them” or “learn just enough about the hobby to maybe get two credit cards to redeem for one trip and conclude it’s too hard or attention-consuming to continue.” They seem to be the product of extremes of “too much focus” and “not enough”.

In the first case, it’s a matter of not seeing the forrest for the trees. Yes, miles are a useful emergency escape tool when you need to go somewhere tomorrow. Yes, they can get you access to international first class. But so many people have been racking up millions of miles and have no idea how to spend them, or do in relatively objectively suboptimal ways (UA Global First – sure, call me out on that but it’s suboptimal) and never deviate from airline loyalties or their weekly (daily!) Walgreens, Office Depot and Walmart runs. Great, but it’s sort of treating the whole hobby as too much of a video game and not about helping you get where you need to go. Once you fly LH F a few times and stay in a suite in an expensive Park Hyatt, they start to lose their luster and you question spending the upcharge in miles for an experience that’s marginally better than most business classes or a mid-tier, well priced Hyatt (or guesthouse!). And you begin to appreciate and explore the destinations more, not wallow in a hotel club lounge or airport lounge.

These people would be well-served by understanding how many miles they actually tend to spend in a year and aiming for a strategy that puts them slightly ahead of that. Much of that is dictated by where you live and where you tend to like to go. Someone living in Atlanta, who likes to go to Latin America will likely need to know way more about Delta and partner accruals, AA’s route network and what competitive airfare tends to look like from the Southeast to EZE, GRU, LIM, SCL, BOG and beyond, perhaps even on carriers like Azul and Copa!

This means you hit the credit cards and grocery stores less hard and follow cash fares and other outsized value opportunities more closely. You ditch your top-tier status on a carrier you complain about to everyone who will listen. Nobody wants to hear the complaints!

As per usual, there will be a part II. Stay tuned!

Read the rest of this article at Are We Witnessing the Demise of Travel Hacking? (Part I).

Foreign programs will continue to partner with US banks

This one is great for us. As the US issuing banks start to forge more partnerships with foreign frequent flyer programs, the value of those meta-miles goes way up, unlocking award charts that were previously quite inaccessible and allowing for ways to combine miles from different programs into a consolidated airline (Singapore, BA, Virgin Atlantic and Air France come to mind since you could transfer some AMEX points and Chase points into each of them.

This flexibility has great utility because it allows for us to better manage opportunity costs across programs, cherry picking the most optimal redemption off the best chart for the particular routes and products we want to fly. Don’t want to fly UA or pay more to fly another star alliance partner? No problem, transfer to Singapore or Air Canada and book the same flight for less!

More fungible opportunities to use miles

Airlines have been steadily rolling out more opportunities to spend miles, cash+miles, anytime/market price awards, pay with avios type promotions and features, using miles to “unlock” other promotions. Remember loyalty programs are a tool for customer engagement, so the more that airlines can engage customers in ways that they feel they’re getting value out of them, the better.

Most travelers see miles as a rebate, like a coffee house buy-10-get-one free punch card and make redemptions so sub-optimally that it makes many people in our community cringe (you spent 50,000 miles to fly from LA to Vegas!!?) but that increased attention on other avenues for redemption may actually provide more value to most occasional flyers.

More options increases the value of your miles, even if you don’t use all of them. Like redeeming SkyMiles for drinks at a Skyclub.

YOU don’t have to use them, but if other people burn their miles in sub-optimal ways, this helps you as it reduces the pool of miles floating around competing for the same award space. It also takes pressure off of carriers to devalue further when they see the outstanding liability from unredeemed miles swell. Make those accountants happy!

Airlines are giving softer guidance

Several carriers (United, Easyjet and Lufthansa) have recently given investment analysts guidance that the next few quarters will likely see fewer passengers flying and capacity increasing, so fares will continue to be depressed, which means they may loosen their belts again and offer more incentives to get on a plane.

Airfare is also getting cheaper (anyone else see that transatlantic fare war this summer?) I’ve purchased both a $200 and $300 one way to Europe twice this summer with very little advanced planning, so cold hard cash is competing against unlocking my mileage balances.

Why pay 30,000 miles to fly to Europe, when I can just pay $300? This pushes the breakeven point of using your miles higher, both in cost per mile — I can do better than 1ct — and with overall redemption cost — I start to redeem for more flights that I’d never consider paying the sticker price for. With cheap revenue trips available, I’m more likely to just buy coach fares and save my redemptions for the more plum international first and business awards.

This trend of cheap airfare also bodes well for even revenue based redemptions — as the same number of miles now buys more travel. 50,000 Southwest miles may have gotten you 6 flights last year, now it might get you 7.

Business class fares are also getting cheaper – which while it’s a long shot, I’m optimistic that it might affect transfer prices on partner redemptions in the future (say on intracontinental or short haul business class), but that’s pretty speculative.

In this world of devaulations, fuel surcharges are starting to look less onerous

Carriers have been getting a lot of flack on tacking on “fuel surcharges” or “carrier-imposed charges” (YQ) just for the privilege of telling a computer to book a seat and deduct an integer from your account balance.

Thankfully, some airlines like Korean and ANA are starting to reign them in (a bit). So now if it’s a question of paying an extra $200 to save 15,000 miles it’s a less obvious choice. This means a number of foreign programs, namely Singapore, BA, ANA and Lufthansa are also becoming more competitive (not getting better, but this is the new world we live in). I actually paid $300 to fly BA first class (to try it out) and paid $240 in YQ when redeeming on Air Canada to fly a Lufthansa long haul segment that was optimally timed when I had little date flexibility.

I understand some people are allergic to YQ and I’ll probably get some nasty comments for it, but some of the programs that were previously off-limits have now become in the realm of possibility given how much the US carriers have watered down their programs. Time to dust off those foreign award charts!

Shameless plug: I actually built a tool last year that takes into account many carriers’ award charts and tells you the optimal program to use. It’s more for manufactured spenders who place a specific dollar value on each type of mile (you can supply your own rates of acquisition), but it may be useful to readers here. $10 with Promo Code: Travel Codex

Conclusion

Maybe this article is too bubbly or optimistic, but I really appreciate how my redemptions have gotten more creative in ways that they haven’t been before. Less extravagant (well kind of) but far more convenient (last minute tickets, more programs to consider).

So given the cheap fares we’ve been seeing, be a little more judicious about cashing in your miles — using them only for complicated trips than “earn and burn”

I understand that this is probably counter to much of the advice out there, but in this new regime of harder earn, more expensive burns — it pays to expand the range of options in your mileage tool kit to stay ahead of the curve. The new program changes may reward you if you’re patient.

But if you agree with me… Don’t Tell Anyone!

Two caveats:

One, this isn’t really an article on carrier perks or the value of airline elite status — it’s more written with the average traveler in mind that flies maybe one long haul and one or two short haul trips per year and the hoards of MS’ers and travel wonks that are flush with miles because they’ve churned the same 15 cards two to five times each.

Two, miles are not an investment vehicle. I’m not advocating saving them on the order of years or decades for a dream trip 20 years from now. It’s far too hard to predict changes to programs that far in advance nor should miles be a significant (or any) part of your investment strategy. Stick your money in the S&P 500 instead. But if you’re worried that you should burn them right now because the sky is falling, my suggestion is to wait a bit for trips you actually want to take.

The future may be brighter.

Read the rest of this article at Your Miles Are Actually Getting More Valuable!.

We usually leave the contrarian posts to Julian, but I’ve been having a number of conversations with friends that leading me to believe we’re reaching an inflection point with mileage devaluations. Your pool of miles from diligently hoarding credit card signup bonuses and 5X back spending categories may be in for outsized value opportunities down the road.

What’s changing?

Earning miles has gotten much harder, both from flying and from banks tightening up on giving out large signup bonuses (5/24, Citi, and we haven’t seen as many offers as previous years and they’ve largely stayed the same or gone down).

Flying, on US carriers, is now no longer a reliable way to earn a significant chunk of miles either. Carriers on average are granting half to one quarter the number of miles that they used to under the new revenue-based mileage regimes (for average travelers with no status buying cheap to moderate coach fares)

So let’s break out our monetary policy textbooks (you keep those around don’t you?). If the supply of miles/money is being created at much slower rates, generally spending goes down (people start redeeming less eagerly than they used to) and inflation starts to get curbed — less threat of devaluations. Check out this definition from Investopedia.

How did we get here?

We’ve just weathered a pretty inflation-driven miles period, where banks bought miles on the cheap from the major airlines as part of bailing them out of bankruptcy (Chase with United miles, Citi with AA miles). This pushed mileage balances pretty high, causing a run on the bank in terms of redemptions. Availability has been comparatively harder to come by as people trade up from a domestic trip to a trip to Europe or Asia, or (gasp) domestic first class.

Remember, in bad economic times, airlines open the piggy bank and offer more incentives to get people flying. This works because there is a lag in those redemptions that they can worry about weathering in better times. So you see more mileage bonuses for flying (as we did after 2009-2010).

In good economic times (like the past two years, the US airlines have have quite a few good quarters), you see airlines tighten their belts and get more stingy, or devalue their award charts since they are actually able to sell the seats that would otherwise be given to redemptions. Revenue management and loyalty have traditionally had an adversarial relationship, where people setting the pricing levels see award redemptions as cannibalizing valuable inventory or at worst, letting money fly out the door. Conversely, loyalty folks often feel like their case for long term customer engagement is falling on deaf ears.

So what’s new? Why so bullish on the future?

Redemptions levels are going up AND down

Delta, American and United are offering (or more directly advertising) short haul specific redemption rates, partly because that 12,500 mile bar for a domestic redemption has gotten harder to attain for most people.

UA will charge 10,000 miles one way for a domestic flight under 700 miles, Delta is offering specific segments for 5,000 and 10,000 miles instead of the traditional 12,500.

American offers a rolling set of cities at a discount paired with flight distance (discounts change depending on whether the segment is more or less than 500 miles) and based on which credit card you hold. The largest discounts are 7,500 miles off a 25,000 roundtrip domestic redemption, considerably cheaper than it has been in the past for redemptions to many secondary/tertiary cities.

Honestly, this is not where I’d usually spend my miles, but for many peoples’ patterns, this means an additional trip or two, particularly if you’re taking a family to visit relatives or flying to airports that are physically close, but tend to have expensive fares. (Any ski fan trying to get to Western Colorado from Denver or routinely commutes to islands knows this pain well).

BA really sparked a competitive race at those short haul redemptions rates and while they pulled back from 4,500 Avios redemption tier in North America, it’s still going strong in Europe, South America and Southeast Asia, where many short routes are still expensive with cash and dirt cheap with miles. Again, islands, mountains, small airports…

Airlines are starting to offer more consistent award redemption and mileage sales

United is currently offering 20% of all domestic redemptions for much of the fall. We saw a similar promotion from Delta to Europe. Air France has been doing this for years.

Granted these sales are generally in coach and are time bound, but as they become more consistent, they begin to affect people’s expectations more and more.

Lifemiles sales are now the norm and AA has gotten more aggressive with mileage sales now that the folks from US have taken over. If you know you can consistently redeem at a rate higher than what they are selling a mile at, it can make sense to stockpile large increments of miles this way to get discounted access to international first and business class awards.

Large pools of miles (and people who know how to generate them) will have less competition

Given that the average traveler really loses from the new mileage accrual schemes and tighter bank approval policies+lower signup bonuses, this really benefits people in our community. Really, it benefits anyone that can easily rack up say 50,000-100,000 miles in an account from expensive tickets, but those types are a dying breed. Corporate travel policies will likely only get more draconian and forbid foolish spending habits.

Manufactured spending gets more powerful as a mile generation tool. Mileage runs become less powerful. The game changes.

But if you’re one of the lucky few flush with miles, you now have far fewer people booking up award space you may be seeking out. I’ve noticed availability to Europe get a lot better than it has been in the past year or two on star alliance and skyteam.

For international business and first class awards, the devaluations pushed many of these award categories out of reach for most people, as it’ll take years of flying 10,000 miles now to get up to even a one way redemption. But given that upwards of 85% of redemptions are domestic economy, perhaps the effect of less competition really won’t be noticed.

As per usual, I’ve had to break this into two parts to do battle with all the other shiny things that may distract people on the internet. And Pokemon Go. Stay tuned for the next installment, likely published tomorrow

Read the rest of this article at Shhh, Your Miles Are Actually Getting More Valuable!.

Many of you are probably aware that carriers that have hubs try to schedule their flights in bursts to maximize connecting traffic — a bank of flights all arrive, there’s pandemonium for 90 minutes, and then huge bank of flights depart. This is efficient network planning and a large reason why we can fly to a stunning number of places around the world in two hops (from major cities).

This can be both good (efficient connections, less waiting) or bad (huge crowds, long security lines, dashing to make a short connection, less time for lounges), so I thought I’d take a look at fight schedules for the past year and see when the busiest airports are ACTUALLY busy. Hopefully this will help your planning if you’re trying to avoid a pulse, or schedule an arrival during one and departure during the next to enjoy a longer lounge stay (or try a jog through the terminal!).

Crunching The Data

I took the schedule data of almost all of the top carriers worldwide for the past year. I filtered it by origin, counted how many departures were listed, counted how many seats (not passengers) each had, and sorted them into hourly buckets (so all flights departing from 2:00-2:59 pm would be in the 2 pm bucket, for example). The result was a histogram for each airport of departures throughout the day over many consecutive days and months.

Over time, this type of counting revealed when each airport was busiest on a typical day and when they are quieter. I normalized the seat and flight counts from each hour to the percent capacity, with the busiest bucket being 1 (100%) and other hours expressed as a fraction of the traffic received during the busiest hour or pulse.

I wrote it all to a CSV file, opened it in Excel, and used conditional formatting to generate a very pretty graphic of what’s going on at each airport. Here’s what it looks like.

This yielded seats and flight counts over each hour, which I normalized to % capacity, with the busiest bucket being 1 (100%) and other hours expressed as a fraction of the traffic received during the busiest hour or pulse.

For instance, you can see that Charles De Gaulle is busiest at 1pm (across all terminals), while the next busiest period is at the 10am hour when the airport is at 79% of the 1pm peak time.

The Results

While many airports have two to three pulses during normal business hours, quite a few are VERY busy at otherwise odd times. Here are the highlights:

South America

Generally, Brazil and Peru get shafted with departure and arrival times, with much of the activity happening between 12 and 5am. Expect 2:30am transcons, huge customs lines around midnight and general malaise at weird times to be wandering an airport.

In particular, airports in the interior of Brazil have the worst experience.

Middle East

Similarly, airports in the Middle East also have weirdest rush hours. 2am is prime time in Dubai, Doha, Tel Aviv and much of Saudi Arabia. I’m guessing that airports in less wealthy parts of the world have to bid for the dregs of aircraft deployment and network planning, with the major carriers only sending aircraft to less-trafficked airports when they’d otherwise sit on the ground.

US Airports

In particular, US airports experience a huge bump right when the noise abatement ordinances lift at 5 or 6am, with a ton of departures soon after. There’s usually a bank of departures around 10am, then 1pm and a more watery one in the late afternoon, when most carriers finish up their runs at smaller airports at 6 or 7pm. There’s also a push from the larger (mostly West Coast) airports around 11pm/midnight to the East Coast and a similar push from the East Coast to Europe around the same time.

Europe Airports

European airports tend to be a bit more relaxed with their earliest departures and late-night flights. They still happen, but the pulses are less tightly organized than the US, with a more smooth distribution throughout the day. 8am and 1pm are pretty busy times, getting things going in the morning and sending most of the long-haul flights outward in the early afternoon.

Conclusion

While I could only get a measure of seats departing at any given time, this analysis neglects to address different load factors. There many be planes going out mostly empty, in which actual traffic through the airport would be lower.

I’m also open to discussing “intervention analysis” with anyone into data science. It’s a particular branch of time-series analysis and there are a few methodologies I’d be down to pick apart with a friend or two.

You can find the code and resulting spreadsheets on Github if you’d like to play around with it. Let me know if you have suggestions for further analysis or other ways to use the data. I’m all ears!

Read the rest of this article at The Busiest Time at the Airport.